Record year for temperatures, storms, floods

WASHINGTON, May 29, 1999 (IPS) -- Record high temperatures, coupled with increased numbers of storms and floods worldwide, made 1998 a year of extremes, according to the Worldwatch Institute.

"This past year was an off-the-chart year," said Lester Brown, president of Worldwatch and co-author of "Vital Signs 1999," the Washington think-tank's annual report on global trends.

"In 1998, the Earth's average temperature literally went off the top of the chart that we have been using for years."

The record highs, leading to more evaporation and rainfall and powering more destructive storms, also sent other figures soaring, according to the report released here on May 29.

Weather related damage world-wide, for example, totaled $92 billion in 1998, up 53 percent from the previous record of $60 billion in 1996.

Damage in 1998 exceeded the total for the entire decade of the 1980s, even after adjusting for inflation, according to Vital

Signs. Record storms and floods last year drove some 300 million people from their homes -- more people than live in the United States -- the report said. Most of these people lived in China's Yangtze River valley, in Bangladesh, and eastern India.

"Some were forced from their homes for only a few days, but others were out for weeks or months and some left permanently," said the 197-page report.

Smaller numbers, living in the Caribbean and Central America, were made homeless by two of the most powerful hurricanes ever to have come out of the Atlantic -- Georges and Mitch. "Was this a glimpse of the future?" the report pondered.

Vital Signs speculated that the rising atmospheric levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases -- such as carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels -- were causing the climate to "spiral out of control."

"We cannot know for sure, but climate simulation models suggest that the events of 1998 could be a window on the future, a consequence of failing to rein in carbon emissions soon enough," it said.

Other global trends also grew significantly in 1998, according to Vital Signs. "The increase in armed conflict was another source of turmoil last year," said co-author Michael Renner.

After five annual declines, the number of wars in the world climbed from 25 to 31 in 1998. Nearly all were internal or civil wars in the developing world, except for the Kosovo province of Serbia, said the report.

Meanwhile, the growth of the global economy decelerated. Economic turmoil in East Asia, Russia and Brazil slowed economic growth from 4.2 percent in 1997 to 2.2 percent in 1998, the most sluggish in seven years, according to Worldwatch.

International trade in 1998 dropped four percent because of the economic turmoil, the first decline in 15 years.

According to Vital Signs, world grain prices dropped in 1998 to the lowest level in two decades, partly because of the economic downturn in several East Asian countries, but mostly because of extensive over- pumping for irrigation in both China and India. "Unfortunately, in the major food-producing countries heavily dependent on irrigation -- China and India -- and in North Africa and the Middle East, water tables are falling," said Vital Signs.

the rise in HIV/AIDS infections, according to Worldwatch. United Nations demographers reduced the projected world population for 2050 by some 500 million, partly because of the result of the HIV epidemic.

The highest infection rates were in African countries south of the Sahara, where 18-25 percent of the adult population is HIV-positive.

"Without a dramatic advance in developing a low-cost treatment for the disease, countries like Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe will lose one-fifth to one-fourth of their adult populations within the next decade," it said.

The Fountain Gulch Fire, north of Idaho Springs, Colo., was 90 percent contained Tuesday night and was expected to be fully contained on Wednesday. The 250-acre fire which started Monday was quickly contained by a combination of dousing by air slurry tankers Monday night and hand crews working fire lines Tuesday.

Overcast skies and cooler, moist air brought relief to crews battling the Missionary Ridge Fire northeast of Durango on Tuesday. The fire grew slightly, according to reports and only smoldered along much of its 73,000-acre area. The Missionary Ridge Fire has destroyed 46 homes since it started June 9. Fire fighting experts said the western portion of the fire was 75 percent contained Tuesday and about 40 percent contained on its eastern side. The adjacent Valley Fire, destroyed 10 homes in a single day before being extinguished June 25.

The Coal Seam Fire, about four miles north of Glenwood Springs, was declared 90 percent contained and smoldering late Tuesday. The fire had consumed more than 12,000 acres since its start. The Million Fire, which started June 19 near South Fork, was declared under containment Tuesday after destroying more than ten homes.

Firefighters continue to battle the Spring Creek Fire north of New Castle in northwest Colorado. That fire is about 40 percent contained after burning more than 7,300 acres.

Firefighting Efforts in South Dakota and Wyoming

In South Dakota, crews made good progress on the four-day-old, 9,000-acre Grizzly Gulch Fire on the outskirts of Deadwood and Lead. Deadwood residents were allowed to return to their homes Tuesday, but Lead was still evacuated as of Wednesday morning. National Weather Service forecasters warned of likely worsening weather conditions Wednesday, however, with 30-mph winds with gusts to 45 mph lasting into the night. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms and lightning in the area.

Officials said they expected containment Thursday of the 7,000-acre Kraft Complex Fire near Shields, N.D. Fires there destroyed 45 structures, including 15 homes.

Fire fighting crews in Wyoming were also making progress containing several wildfires Tuesday. The Hensel Fire in Medicine Bow National Forest about 20 miles northwest of Wheatland, Wyo., was declared 95 percent contained Tuesday after having consumed more than 14,500 acres of woodlands. The Watt Fire northeast of Buffalo was 80 percent contained after burning 1,400 acres. Although declared 80 percent contained, extreme fire activity with long-range spotting was observed on the Pownell Fire north of Gillette. Also showing extreme fire activity were the Daley Complex (13,000 acres) north of Gillette and the Reese Mountain Fire (10,000 acres) west of Wheatland. Wyoming firefighters were also contending with the 4,500-acre South Fork II Fire on Wind River Agency land, the 315-acre Cow Camp Fire southeast of Pinedale and the 125-acre She Bear Mountain Fire in Big Horn National Forest 15 miles west of Sheridan.

Fires in Arizona and the Western U.S.

Two new large fires were reported in Arizona on Tuesday. These were the only new large fires reported nationally yesterday. The most significant fire activity in the western U.S. is occurring in Utah with six large fires burning a total of 107,000 acres. Dry thunderstorms were observed in Nevada and Utah on Tuesday, and very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon and Utah.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO POUND SAN ANTONIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

Four days of heavy rain have left at least two people dead and damaged hundreds of homes in south central Texas. Rainfall accumulations of up to 16 inches caused moderate to major flooding of 16 rivers and streams in a 38 county area.

San Antonio and Bexar County are among the hardest hit areas with more than 200 homes damaged by flood waters. Since midnight Monday, 138 roads were closed, more than 230 high water rescue calls were received and more than 450 traffic accidents were reported.

As the rain continued to fall yesterday, Governor Rick Perry activated the Texas National Guard to aid with relief and rescue efforts. The Guard dispatched 20 high profile trucks and six UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters for search and rescue operations in San Antonio and Bexar County. The state also deployed an Incident Management Team and eight Swift Water Rescue Teams to the area. Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolf and San Antonio Mayor Ed Garza also asked the Governor for a declaration of disaster to help small business and homeowners.

The 9.52 inches of rain recorded at San Antonio International Airport for July 1st makes Monday the second rainiest day in the city's history. The heaviest one-day rainfall record is 11.26 inches recorded October 17, 1998. The July 1st amount also exceeds the record total for the entire month of July (8.29 inches in 1990).

While the major storm system began drifting westward Wednesday, a flash flood watch remains in effect for all of south central Texas through Wednesday night. Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout the affected area on Thursday.